Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
