🔗 Share this article

Just two months in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach berated him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the reason for the side's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?

That’s a rather hard query to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
• The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.

This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.