Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
